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Mythos Long Tail

In theory the principle of sounds “Long Tail” as a great new business model. In practice, however, benefit in three main categories of the phenomenon: aggregators such as Amazon or iTunes, rights holders with a large catalog and six billion customers. Along the way, the creators and producers. While sales at the rear tail of the curve often remain in the single digits, there is growing competition in this area over. By digitizing the production and distribution of works for the individual is possible and affordable. This has however meant that many new products. The economists Robert Frank and Philip Cook put in her book “The Winner-Take-All Society” on another, not the Long Tail corresponding theory. They argue that rapid communication and ease any potential duplication product manufacturers to pay high profits and customers in their buying patterns converge. You see three reasons for this:

  • … less good quality rarely replaced good quality …
  • … the social behavior of humans means that they like the same music, movies look the same …
  • … if the marginal cost of production and sales are low, a fast seller benefits from a large cost advantage … [1]

Sherwin Rosen called this the “superstar effect”, a small leading group prefers the field more and more thereof. One leads to the next hit. [2] Anita Elberse looked at the long tail theory by Chris Anderson and analyzed the latest sales figures from online retailers. The results confirmed the theory of the seller. 48 percent of the DVD rental Quickflix accounted for the top ten percent of the films, the highest percent generated 19 percent of the borrowed films. That is, for a total offering of 16,000 units were just 150 films for nearly a fifth of all transactions. Is clearly noticeable in the results of Elberse that sales in the niche part of the curve has shifted. In the period 2000 to 2005, the number of titles that are only a few have sold, weekly doubled. The number of titles that have not been sold, however, quadrupled. Many titles are queried a few times, but many more did not. Digitalization brings undoubtedly more market share for independent productions, but the advantage is dwindling even faster, the closer you get to the sales curve above approaches. most clearly felt that the tough competition in the digital goods using the example of the App Store from Apple. About iTunes can find programs for the iPhone or the iPod may be paid. Although in April 2009 einmilliardste Download [3] reported, 30,000 of the currently available programs, but only one per cent profit. [4 ] Elberse findings are interesting in connection with William McPhees theory: “Formal Theories of Mass Behavoir”. The theory provides two relevant generalizations:

  • The consumer products are popular in large part from occasional customers whose total demand in the product category is low, while for unknown products, the proportion of customers who consume the most, is disproportionately high .
  • consumers appreciate these unknown products are usually less than popular products. [5]

Elberse compared the findings with their current data and came to the conclusion that the theory still stands. It acknowledges that there is no customer segment with a particularly strong penchant for offbeat products. Rather, draw customers, who consume a whole lot, sometimes to offers from the Long Tail of the popularity distribution. Those who borrow less, on the other hand, concentrate on the most popular products. Often also the effect of the recommendations highlighted in the Long Tail. The consumer satisfaction obtained when the infinite niche market is a rarity, and then detected with like-minded people can share. However, these recommendations are loud Elberse in no relation to the countless families that have their moments when blockbusters like “Ice Age” want to share with others. The effect of assessments must be on closer examination seen to be well differentiated. Customers of the video title unknown Quickflix valued on average less positive than popular. Critics are particularly critical in their evaluations, one might think, but they also assess popular titles very well. Less popular offerings are more likely to be used by customers who are interested in certain genres, such as rock and roll or romantic comedies. They know each other better with the alternatives within a genre, and perhaps therefore assess good popular products even more niche products and bad worse. Niche products in the ratings worse off, no matter how you analyze the customer base and aufdröselt. [6] by Anita Elberse Conclusion: The buying habits of consumers see the Internet on the whole, just like earlier in the shops. While Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google, in 2006, even on the cover of the bestseller by Chris Anderson is quoted as follows, Anderson's insights have a major impact on Google's strategic thinking. Read this brilliant and cutting-edge book. [7] sounds his statement in September 2008 on the theme “Long Tail” something different: I … would like to tell you that the Internet has created such a level playing field that the long tail is absolutely the place to be-that there's so much differentiation, there's so much diversity, so many new voices. Unfortunately, that's not the case. What really happens is something called a power law, with the property that a small number of things are very highly concentrated and most other things have relatively little volume. Virtually all of the new network markets follow this law … … So, while the tail is very interesting, the vast majority of revenue remains in the head. And this is a lesson that businesses have to learn. While you can have a long tail strategy, you better have a head, because that's where all the revenue is … … And, in fact, it's probable that the Internet will lead to larger and more blockbuster concentration of brands. Which, again, does not make sense to most people, because it's a larger distribution medium. But when you get everybody together they still like to have one superstar. It's no longer a U.S. superstar, it's a global superstar. So that means global brands, global businesses, global sports figures, celebrities globally, global scandals, global politicians … … So, we love the long tail, but we make most of our revenue in the head, because of the math of the power law. And you need both, by the way. You need the head and the tail to make the model work … [8] is often forgotten, but my opinion is very important also that the effect of the long tails naturally more for products with low production costs, since the costs can quickly be refinanced. Authors, musicians are much more likely to break-even point achieved in this film as is the case, because the investments – for professionally produced films – usually a lot higher.


[1] Elberse, Anita (2008.07.29. quoted by Frank and Cook, 1996): The Tale of Long Tail. in: Harvard Business manager, 32 [2] ibid [3] Wilkens, Andreas (2009.04.24.) Apple has a billion App Store downloads settled. In: http://www.heise. de/newsticker/Apple-hat-eine-Milliarde-App-Store-Downloads-abgewickelt–/me
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(Stand: 05.05.2009) [4] Igler, Nadja (2009.04.22.): The App Store is the most brutal market. In: http://futurezone.orf.at/stories/1602482/ (Stand: 05.05.2009) [5] Elberse, Anita (2008.07.29. McPhees cited by, 1963): The Tale of Long Tail. in: Harvard Business manager, 32 [6] Elberse, Anita (2008.07.29.): The Tale of Long Tail. in: Harvard Business manager, 32 [7] Anderson, Chris (2006): The Long Tail – The long tail, Cover [8] Manyika, James (2008): Google's view on the future of business: An interview with CEO Eric Schmidt. In: http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Googles_view_on_the_future_of_business_An_interview_with_CEO_Eric_Schmidt_2229?pagenum=1 # interactive_google_schmidt (05.05. 2009)